Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 84700.289125 89394.881729 94088.018961 99128.428088 104385.245951 109702.736094 115484.792653
2025-02-16 76329.239808 83471.821138 90813.176562 98912.500000 107586.945949 116588.205404 126624.181554
2025-02-23 70822.497786 79650.165960 88923.158576 99368.938026 110786.636234 122865.935469 136589.480300
2025-03-02 66344.634771 76400.746360 87159.157336 99490.350861 113197.390852 127930.107549 144925.813374
2025-03-09 63478.908684 74611.694194 86711.023669 100786.305062 116656.670919 133943.512605 154142.021160
2025-03-16 60033.453015 71917.096738 85022.226446 100476.909591 118131.099071 137595.198397 160601.508156
2025-03-23 58127.617509 70822.205959 85003.778084 101930.026803 121487.056069 143277.598830 169292.401025
2025-03-30 56131.323438 69491.287417 84598.858204 102834.212000 124128.766927 148088.102141 176956.909019
2025-04-06 53915.400563 67783.324042 83649.626645 103007.650141 125842.594088 151773.576664 183290.460065
2025-04-13 51774.296912 66060.696955 82589.654533 102963.588765 127228.021543 155023.631895 189083.610922
2025-04-20 50664.871150 65515.018364 82870.424291 104460.458968 130394.058538 160333.197318 197286.216132
2025-04-27 49638.795941 65014.805366 83158.718443 105927.610562 133499.591973 165564.032398 205410.380203
2025-05-04 48228.614413 64009.287133 82816.651643 106630.745076 135708.276501 169776.814746 212407.224964
2025-05-11 46538.608357 62596.636255 81926.880154 106624.011520 137030.062045 172920.407296 218139.073429
2025-05-18 45223.161064 61603.076500 81508.315601 107156.430295 138979.303401 176803.594184 224764.159494
2025-05-25 43800.265533 60419.964323 80806.715414 107295.556138 140413.020705 180044.314377 230610.246301
2025-06-01 43047.009050 60063.619131 81115.335254 108675.279127 143369.056913 185140.450493 238734.875870
2025-06-08 41553.561093 58697.145122 80100.168486 108346.870008 144165.947505 187572.136056 243593.780084
2025-06-15 40981.276509 58512.173584 80572.830509 109891.434826 147304.951980 192896.397519 252037.220195
2025-06-22 40185.569080 58002.500089 80603.494898 110852.354690 149698.342853 197300.160730 259362.263266
2025-06-29 39097.138277 57067.397667 80051.761548 111036.664838 151086.606478 200443.740413 265126.717468
2025-07-06 37964.004987 56037.176919 79344.042556 110989.843875 152157.298619 203177.345557 270379.580665
2025-07-13 37556.274648 55975.331039 79897.646262 112580.367928 155331.626857 208569.988373 278998.749877